The Credibility Crisis in Science: Tweakers, Fraudsters, and the Manipulation of Empirical Results
暫譯: 科學中的信任危機:調整者、詐騙者與實證結果的操控

Plümper, Thomas, Neumayer, Eric

  • 出版商: Summit Valley Press
  • 出版日期: 2026-03-17
  • 售價: $1,500
  • 貴賓價: 9.5$1,425
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 280
  • 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
  • ISBN: 0262051273
  • ISBN-13: 9780262051279
  • 相關分類: 科技科普 Technology
  • 尚未上市,無法訂購

相關主題

商品描述

A novel perspective on scientific fraud--how undisclosed "tweaks" to research designs and model specifications fuel the credibility crisis in science.

In The Credibility Crisis in Science, leading social scientists Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer argue that the most important fraudulent strategy is crucially underappreciated. While data fabrication and manipulation are widely recognized as fraudulent, "tweaks"--the intentional selection of research designs and model specifications based on the results they give--are not.
The authors of this book contend that the term "scientific fraud" must include tweaks. Tweakers, like other fraudsters, deceive readers by concealing their manipulation of empirical results and they do so to further their own interests.

The authors show how easily observational data analyses, experimental designs, and causal models are tweaked in ways that are extremely difficult, often impossible, to detect. As a consequence, the credibility crisis in science is even more severe than both scientists and the public believe.

Plümper and Neumayer argue that conventional strategies to deter, prevent, and detect fraud will not work for tweaks. The authors put forth two potential solutions: first, a classification system that categorizes data based on its susceptibility to manipulation and the probability of such manipulation being identified, and second, the proposal that journal editors and reviewers, rather than authors, select robustness tests.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

對科學欺詐的新視角——未公開的研究設計和模型規範的「調整」如何助長科學的可信度危機。

科學的可信度危機一書中,領先的社會科學家Thomas Plümper和Eric Neumayer主張,最重要的欺詐策略被嚴重低估。雖然數據造假和操控被廣泛認為是欺詐行為,但「調整」——根據所產生的結果故意選擇研究設計和模型規範——卻並不被認可。
本書的作者主張,「科學欺詐」這一術語必須包括調整。調整者像其他欺詐者一樣,通過隱瞞對實證結果的操控來欺騙讀者,並且這樣做是為了進一步自己的利益。

作者展示了觀察數據分析、實驗設計和因果模型是如何被輕易調整,這些調整的方式極其難以檢測,往往是不可能檢測的。因此,科學的可信度危機比科學家和公眾所認為的更為嚴重。

Plümper和Neumayer主張,傳統的防止、預防和檢測欺詐的策略對於調整無效。作者提出了兩個潛在的解決方案:首先,建立一個分類系統,根據數據的操控易感性和該操控被識別的概率對數據進行分類;其次,建議由期刊編輯和審稿人,而非作者,來選擇穩健性測試。

作者簡介

Thomas Plümper is Professor of Quantitative Social Research at the Vienna University of Economics and Business and Head of the Department of Socioeconomics. He is author of numerous articles and coauthor, with Eric Neumayer, of Robustness Tests for Quantitative Research.

Eric Neumayer is Professor of Environment and Development at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and a recipient of the Philip Leverhulme Prize in Geography. He is LSE's Deputy President and Vice Chancellor.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

托馬斯·普倫珀(Thomas Plümper)是維也納經濟與商業大學(Vienna University of Economics and Business)定量社會研究的教授,並且是社會經濟學系的系主任。他著有多篇文章,並與埃里克·紐梅耶(Eric Neumayer)共同撰寫了《定量研究的穩健性測試》(Robustness Tests for Quantitative Research)。

埃里克·紐梅耶是倫敦政治經濟學院(London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE)環境與發展的教授,並且是菲利普·利維赫姆地理獎(Philip Leverhulme Prize in Geography)的獲得者。他是LSE的副校長及校長。