Reasoning about Uncertainty (MIT Press)

In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks.

This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

為了能夠智能地應對不確定性，我們需要能夠對其進行表示和推理。在這本書中，Joseph Halpern探討了表示不確定性的形式化方法，並考慮了各種關於不確定性的邏輯。儘管所提出的想法是以定義和定理的形式化方式呈現的，但重點在於對表示和推理不確定性的哲學思考。Halpern對表示不確定性的可能形式化系統進行了調查，包括概率測度、可能性測度和合理性測度；考慮了基於變化信息的信念更新和與貝葉斯定理的關係；並討論了定性、定量和合理性貝葉斯網絡。

這本第二版已經更新以反映Halpern最近的研究。新材料包括對加權概率測度及其在決策中的應用的考慮；對末日論和睡美人問題的分析；使用運行和系統方法對具有不完全回憶的遊戲進行建模；對複雜性理論考慮的討論；以及將一階條件邏輯應用於安全性。《關於不確定性的推理》對許多領域的研究人員和學生都具有可讀性和相關性，包括計算機科學、人工智能、經濟學（特別是博弈論）、數學、哲學和統計學。