The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success Leads to Failure (And What to do About It) (Hardcover)
暫譯: 策略悖論:為何承諾成功會導致失敗(以及該如何應對)(精裝版)

Michael E. Raynor

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A compelling vision. Bold leadership. Decisive action. Unfortunately, these prerequisites of success are almost always the ingredients of failure, too. In fact, most managers seeking to maximize their chances for glory are often unwittingly setting themselves up for ruin. The sad truth is that most companies have left their futures almost entirely to chance, and don’t even realize it. The reason? Managers feel they must make choices with far-reaching consequences today, but must base those choices on assumptions about a future they cannot predict. It is this collision between commitment and uncertainty that creates THE STRATEGY PARADOX.

This paradox sets up a ubiquitous but little-understood tradeoff. Because managers feel they must base their strategies on assumptions about an unknown future, the more ambitious of them hope their guesses will be right – or that they can somehow adapt to the turbulence that will arise. In fact, only a small number of lucky daredevils prosper, while many more unfortunate, but no less capable managers find themselves at the helms of sinking ships. Realizing this, even if only intuitively, most managers shy away from the bold commitments that success seems to demand, choosing instead timid, unremarkable strategies, sacrificing any chance at greatness for a better chance at mere survival.

Michael E. Raynor, coauthor of the bestselling The Innovator's Solution, explains how leaders can break this tradeoff and achieve results historically reserved for the fortunate few even as they reduce the risks they must accept in the pursuit of success. In the cutthroat world of competitive strategy, this is as close as you can come to getting something for nothing.

Drawing on leading-edge scholarship and extensive original research, Raynor’s revolutionary principle of Requisite Uncertainty yields a clutch of critical, counter-intuitive findings. Among them:

-- The Board should not evaluate the CEO based on the company’s performance, but instead on the firm’s strategic risk profile
-- The CEO should not drive results, but manage uncertainty
-- Business unit leaders should not focus on execution, but on making strategic choices
-- Line managers should not worry about strategic risk, but devote themselves to delivering on commitments

With detailed case studies of success and failure at Sony, Microsoft, Vivendi Universal, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T and other major companies in industries from financial services to energy, Raynor presents a concrete framework for strategic action that allows companies to seize today’s opportunities while simultaneously preparing for tomorrow’s promise.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

引人注目的願景。大膽的領導。果斷的行動。不幸的是,這些成功的前提幾乎總是失敗的成分。事實上,大多數尋求最大化榮耀機會的經理人,往往無意中將自己置於毀滅的邊緣。悲哀的真相是,大多數公司幾乎完全將未來交給了運氣,卻未意識到這一點。原因是什麼?經理人感覺他們必須在今天做出具有深遠影響的選擇,但這些選擇必須基於對無法預測的未來的假設。正是這種承諾與不確定性之間的碰撞,創造了策略悖論。

這一悖論設置了一個普遍存在但鮮為人知的權衡。因為經理人感覺他們必須基於對未知未來的假設來制定策略,因此他們中更有雄心的人希望自己的猜測是正確的——或者他們能以某種方式適應將出現的動盪。事實上,只有少數幸運的冒險者能夠繁榮,而更多不幸但同樣有能力的經理人卻發現自己在沉沒的船舵上。意識到這一點,即使只是直覺上,大多數經理人也會避開成功似乎要求的大膽承諾,而選擇膽怯、平凡的策略,犧牲任何偉大的機會以換取更好的生存機會。

《創新者的解決方案》的聯合作者邁克爾·E·雷諾(Michael E. Raynor)解釋了領導者如何打破這一權衡,並在減少他們在追求成功過程中必須接受的風險的同時,實現歷史上僅屬於少數幸運者的結果。在競爭策略的殘酷世界中,這是你能夠獲得不勞而獲的最接近的方式。

基於前沿的學術研究和廣泛的原創研究,雷諾的革命性原則「必要的不確定性」(Requisite Uncertainty)產生了一系列關鍵的、反直覺的發現。其中包括:

-- 董事會不應根據公司的表現來評估CEO,而應根據公司的戰略風險概況
-- CEO不應驅動結果,而應管理不確定性
-- 業務單位領導者不應專注於執行,而應專注於做出戰略選擇
-- 一線經理不應擔心戰略風險,而應致力於履行承諾

通過對索尼、微軟、維旺迪環球、強生、AT&T及其他主要公司在金融服務到能源等行業的成功與失敗的詳細案例研究,雷諾提出了一個具體的戰略行動框架,使公司能夠把握當前的機會,同時為明天的承諾做好準備。