Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
暫譯: 超級預測：預測的藝術與科學

Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
  • 出版商: Crown Publishing Group (NY)
  • 出版日期: 2016-09-13
  • 售價: $880
  • 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $836
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 352
  • 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
  • ISBN: 0804136718
  • ISBN-13: 9780804136716
  • 其他版本: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Hardcover)

    • 海外代購書籍(需單獨結帳)

相關主題

商品描述

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

紐約時報暢銷書 - 被經濟學人評選為年度最佳書籍之一

'自丹尼爾·卡尼曼的思考，快與慢以來，關於決策的最重要書籍。'--傑森·茲維格，華爾街日報

每個人都能從更深入的未來預測中受益，無論是購買股票、制定政策、推出新產品，還是簡單地計劃一週的餐點。不幸的是，人們往往是糟糕的預測者。正如沃頓商學院教授菲利普·泰特洛克在2005年的一項開創性研究中所顯示的，即使是專家的預測也僅比隨機猜測稍微好一些。然而，該研究的一個重要且未被充分報導的結論是，某些專家確實具備真正的預見能力，而泰特洛克在過去十年中一直在試圖弄清楚原因。是什麼讓某些人如此出色？這種才能能否被教授？

在超預測一書中，泰特洛克和合著者丹·加德納提供了一部關於預測的傑作，基於數十年的研究和一項大型政府資助的預測比賽的結果。良好判斷計畫涉及數萬名普通人——包括一位布魯克林的電影製作人、一位退休的管道安裝工和一位前舞廳舞者——他們致力於預測全球事件。其中一些志願者的表現驚人。他們超越了其他基準、競爭對手和預測市場。他們甚至超越了擁有機密信息的情報分析師的集體判斷。他們是“超預測者”。

在這本開創性且易於理解的書中，泰特洛克和加德納向我們展示了如何從這個精英群體中學習。通過編織預測成功（對奧薩馬·本·拉登的襲擊）和失敗（豬灣事件）的故事，以及與一系列高層決策者的訪談，從大衛·佩特雷烏斯到羅伯特·魯賓，他們展示了良好的預測並不需要強大的計算機或深奧的方法。它涉及從各種來源收集證據、進行概率思考、團隊合作、保持記錄，以及願意承認錯誤並改變方向。

超預測提供了第一種可證明有效的方法來提高我們預測未來的能力——無論是在商業、金融、政治、國際事務或日常生活中——並注定成為現代經典。

作者簡介

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.

Dan Gardner is a New York Times bestselling author, speaker, and consultant. His three books on psychology and decision-making--published in 25 countries and 19 languages--have been praised by everyone from The Economist to Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist, talking head, and investigative journalist who won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism. He is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs and lives in Ottawa, Canada.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

菲利普·E·泰特洛克是賓夕法尼亞大學的安嫩伯格大學教授，並在心理學、政治科學系及沃頓商學院擔任職務。他和他的妻子巴巴拉·梅勒斯共同領導「良好判斷計畫」（Good Judgment Project），這是一項為期多年的預測研究。他也是《專家政治判斷》（Expert Political Judgment）的作者，以及與亞倫·貝爾金（Aaron Belkin）合著的《世界政治中的反事實思維實驗》（Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics）的作者。

丹·加德納是《紐約時報》（New York TimesThe Economist）到諾貝爾獎得主丹尼爾·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）等各界的讚譽。在成為作者之前，加德納曾是一名報紙專欄作家、電視評論員和調查記者，並贏得或被提名為加拿大報紙新聞界的每一項主要獎項。他是渥太華大學公共政策與國際事務研究所的榮譽高級研究員，現居於加拿大渥太華。

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