Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects
暫譯: 專案中的人工智慧與風險分析

Carmona, Manuel

Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects

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商品描述

Every project carries uncertainty. Costs overrun, schedules slip, and revenues disappoint--not because project managers lack skill, but because most risk analyses rely on single-point estimates that conceal the true range of possible outcomes. This book provides a structured framework for project risk management, combines it with rigorous quantitative risk analysis, and shows how artificial intelligence makes both accessible to every practitioner, regardless of budget or technical background.
Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects delivers a complete, practitioner-focused framework covering the full project risk management lifecycle--from risk identification and qualitative assessment through to quantitative risk analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control. The quantitative core of the book addresses Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic NPV and IRR appraisal, decision trees, expected monetary value, sensitivity analysis, and the calibration of probability distributions from real project data. A case study running through the book compares two capital investment projects under deterministic and probabilistic analysis, demonstrating concretely how single-point estimates overstate expected returns and conceal the probability of loss--in one case by more than 70%. The AI dimension is integrated throughout rather than treated as a separate topic: readers learn how large language models support risk identification and qualitative analysis, how AI enhances the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulation inputs, how structured prompt engineering directs AI toward specific risk management tasks, and how AI performs as an independent model auditor and stress-testing partner. The book addresses the governance, validation, and accountability structures that responsible AI deployment in project environments requires, and closes by demonstrating Monte Carlo simulation using AI alone--making rigorous probabilistic analysis accessible to practitioners who lack access to commercial simulation software.

Written for project risk managers, project controls professionals, and students of project management, this is the first book to unite a structured project risk management framework, rigorous quantitative risk analysis, and applied artificial intelligence in a single integrated treatment. It is both a professional reference and a practical guide--grounded in real case studies, immediately applicable to real project decisions, and positioned at the frontier of where the project risk management profession is heading.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

每個專案都伴隨著不確定性。成本超支、時程延誤、營收不如預期——這些情況並不是因為專案經理能力不足，而是因為大多數風險分析仰賴單點估計，掩蓋了可能結果的真實範圍。本書提供一套結構化的專案風險管理架構，結合嚴謹的量化風險分析，並說明人工智慧如何讓所有實務工作者都能運用這些方法，不受預算或技術背景限制。

《Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects》提供一套完整、以實務工作者為核心的架構，涵蓋專案風險管理的完整生命週期——從風險識別與定性評估，到量化風險分析、風險回應規劃，以及監控與控制。本書的量化核心涵蓋 Monte Carlo simulation、機率式 NPV 與 IRR 評估、決策樹、預期貨幣價值、敏感度分析，以及根據實際專案資料校準機率分布。貫穿全書的案例研究，會在確定性分析與機率性分析下比較兩個資本投資專案，具體展示單點估計如何高估預期報酬，並掩蓋損失發生的機率——其中一個案例的高估幅度超過 70%。

人工智慧並非被當作獨立主題處理，而是整合於全書各個部分：讀者將學習大型語言模型如何支援風險識別與定性分析、AI 如何提升 Monte Carlo simulation 輸入值的準確性、結構化 prompt engineering 如何引導 AI 執行特定的風險管理任務，以及 AI 如何作為獨立的模型稽核者與壓力測試夥伴發揮作用。本書也探討在專案環境中負責任地部署 AI 所需的治理、驗證與問責架構，最後示範如何單靠 AI 執行 Monte Carlo simulation，讓無法取得商業模擬軟體的實務工作者也能進行嚴謹的機率分析。

本書適合專案風險經理、專案控制專業人員，以及專案管理領域的學生閱讀，是第一本將結構化專案風險管理架構、嚴謹的量化風險分析與實務應用人工智慧，整合於單一完整論述中的著作。本書既是專業參考書，也是實用指南——以真實案例研究為基礎，可立即應用於實際專案決策，並位於專案風險管理專業發展方向的前沿。

作者簡介

Manuel Carmona is an independent consultant, trainer, author, and PhD researcher at the University of Westminster in London, specialising in artificial intelligence, project risk management, and quantitative risk analysis (QRA). With more than 25 years of international experience, he has delivered hundreds of professional training programmes and coached thousands of practitioners in advanced risk management, probabilistic modelling, and Monte Carlo simulation. He advises organisations across sectors including energy, engineering, construction, infrastructure, finance, and technology, helping them make better decisions under uncertainty by combining statistical methods with AI-driven decision support. His areas of expertise include quantitative risk analysis, cost and schedule risk analysis, probabilistic financial modelling, scenario planning, and forecasting. Manuel is the author of the English-language book Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects (Routledge) and the Spanish-language Inteligencia Artificial y Análisis de Riesgos en Proyectos (Marcombo). Both books explore how AI can augment--rather than replace--human expertise in project management and decision-making. He speaks English, Spanish, and French fluently.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

Manuel Carmona 是一名獨立顧問、培訓師、作者，也是倫敦 University of Westminster 的博士研究人員，專精於人工智慧、專案風險管理與量化風險分析（quantitative risk analysis，QRA）。他擁有超過 25 年的國際經驗，曾主持數百項專業培訓計畫，並指導數千名從業人員學習進階風險管理、機率模型與 Monte Carlo 模擬。他為能源、工程、營造、基礎建設、金融與科技等產業的組織提供諮詢，結合統計方法與 AI 驅動的決策支援，協助這些組織在不確定性下做出更完善的決策。他的專業領域包括量化風險分析、成本與時程風險分析、機率式財務建模、情境規劃與預測。

Manuel 著有英文書籍《Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects》（Routledge），以及西班牙文書籍《Inteligencia Artificial y Análisis de Riesgos en Proyectos》（Marcombo）。這兩本書都探討 AI 如何在專案管理與決策過程中增強人類專業能力，而非取代人類專業。他能流利使用 English、Spanish 與 French。

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