Profit From Your Forecasting Software: A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters (Wiley and SAS Business Series)

Paul Goodwin

商品描述

Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting

A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software.

Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy.

  • Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations
  • Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output
  • Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention
  • Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software

Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

超越技術,掌握預測中困難的判斷

各種軟體可以有效地用於準確的預測,但沒有軟體能取代人的重要組成部分。你可能對預測還不熟悉,或者你可能已經掌握了軟體預測背後的統計理論,甚至更高級的軟體「高手」技巧,但除非你掌握軟體無法做出的複雜判斷,否則你的預測永遠不會達到最高的準確性。《從預測軟體中獲利》解決了經常出現的問題,並向你展示如何做出正確的決策,以充分利用你的軟體。

本書以非數學的方式討論各種預測模型,涵蓋了常見的日常決策,例如模型選擇、預測調整、產品層次、安全庫存水平、模型適應度測試等等。清晰的解釋幫助你更好地理解季節性指數、平滑係數、平均絕對百分比誤差和R平方,並通過對心理偏見的探討,深入了解是否覆蓋軟體預測的決策。本書著重於選擇、解釋和判斷,超越了技術手冊,幫助你真正掌握更難以捉摸的技能,從而提高準確性。


  • 探索不同情況下替代預測方法的優缺點

  • 掌握解釋和評估軟體輸出的能力

  • 了解可能影響你對干預的判斷的潛意識偏見


  • 尋找專家指導,以測試、規劃和配置幫助你充分利用軟體

《從預測軟體中獲利》適用於各行各業的銷售預測師、需求規劃師和分析師,是預測參考中備受追捧的「遺漏之塊」。