Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks

Kurt, Will

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商品描述

Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.

Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.

This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.

By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:

- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them

Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

透過不尋常且生動的例子,這本書是一本有趣的學習貝葉斯統計和機率的指南。機率和統計在眾多職業中變得越來越重要。然而,許多人在使用數據時並不了解,這意味著他們無法充分利用數據。《貝葉斯統計的有趣方式》將改變這一點。這本書將通過簡單的解釋和有趣的例子,讓您完全理解貝葉斯統計。例如,您可以找出不明飛行物降落在您花園的機率,漢·索羅在穿越小行星雨時存活的可能性,如何在陰謀論辯論中獲勝,以及一起入室盜竊案是否真的是一起入室盜竊案等等。通過使用這些與眾不同的例子,作者使統計學變得有趣。您還將學到實用的技能,例如:如何測量您在結論或信念中的不確定程度、計算貝葉斯定理並了解其用途、找出後驗概率、似然概率和先驗概率以檢查結論的準確性、計算分佈以查看數據的範圍、比較假設並從中得出可靠的結論。下次當您手上有一堆調查結果卻不知道如何處理時,請參考《貝葉斯統計的有趣方式》,以充分利用您的數據。

作者簡介

Will Kurt currently works as a Senior Data Scientist at Bombora, and has been using Bayesian statistics to solve real business problems for over half a decade. He frequently blogs about probability on his website, CountBayesie.com. Will is the author of Get Programming with Haskell (Manning Publications) and lives in Reno, Nevada.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

Will Kurt目前在Bombora擔任高級數據科學家,已經使用貝葉斯統計方法解決實際商業問題超過五年。他經常在他的網站CountBayesie.com上寫博客關於概率。Will是《Get Programming with Haskell》(Manning出版社)的作者,居住在內華達州雷諾市。