Johnson, Brian David, Vanatta, Natalie, Coon, Cyndi

  • 出版商: Morgan & Claypool
  • 出版日期: 2021-10-07
  • 售價: $2,750
  • 貴賓價: 9.5$2,613
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 311
  • 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
  • ISBN: 1636391982
  • ISBN-13: 9781636391984
  • 海外代購書籍(需單獨結帳)


Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape.

This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.

Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future.


Brian David Johnson is a Professor of Practice at Arizona State University's School for the Future of Innovation in Society, and a Futurist and Fellow at Frost & Sullivan, a visionary innovation company that's focused on growth. He also works with governments, militaries, trade organizations, and startups to help them envision their future. He has over 30 patents and is the author of a number of books of fiction and nonfiction, including Science Fiction Prototyping; Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computing and the Devices We Love; Humanity and the Machine: What Comes After Greed?; Vintage Tomorrows: A Historian and a Futurist Journey through Steampunk into the Future of Technology and The Future You. His writing has appeared in publications ranging from The Wall Street Journal and Slate to IEEE Computer and Successful Farming, and he appears regularly on Bloomberg TV, PBS, Fox News, and the Discovery Channel. He has directed two feature films, and is an illustrator and commissioned painter.


Natalie Vanatta is a U.S. Army cyber officer and currently serves as the Emerging Technologies Research Team Lead at the Army Cyber Institute (the Army's think tank on cyber). Here she focuses on bringing private industry, academia, and government agencies together to explore and solve cyber challenges facing the U.S. Army in the next 3-10 years in order to prevent strategic surprise. She holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics as well as degrees in computer engineering and systems engineering. She is an adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University as well as an Academy Professor at the United States Military Academy at West Point.


Cyndi Coon serves as the Chief of Staff at the Threatcasting Lab, Producer at ASURE Applied Futures Lab, Producing Director at the Weaponized Narrative Initiative, and a producer for the office of the president at Arizona State University. Cyndi is the Founder and CEO of Laboratory5 Inc., where she works with government agencies, NGOs, the military, higher education, and nonprofits. Cyndi received a Master's Degree in Fine Arts from Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, and a Bachelor of Fine Arts Degree from Kendall College of Art and Design in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Cyndi has taught at Arizona State University and in the Maricopa Community College system.