裝備體系貢獻率評估——理論、方法與應用

第一篇 體系貢獻率評估理論
第1 章 體系貢獻率評估概述·························································.002
1.1 戰略規劃視野下的體系貢獻率問題背景···································.002
1.1.1 體系貢獻率：使命組織發展的核心價值觀························.002
1.1.2 面向戰略規劃研究的體系貢獻率問題分析························.004
1.2 體系貢獻率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 體系貢獻率的概念內涵················································.008
1.2.2 體系貢獻率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 體系貢獻率評估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 問題域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技術域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 總體研究框架····························································.014
1.4 體系貢獻率評估的研究進展··················································.015
1.4.1 國內研究進展綜述······················································.015
1.4.2 國外研究進展綜述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究進展小結····························································.026
1.4.4 重點研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 體系貢獻率評估的基礎理論··············································.029
2.1 復雜系統與復雜網絡···························································.029
2.1.1 復雜系統的凈貢獻概念················································.029
2.1.2 復雜適應系統理論······················································.029
2.1.3 復雜網絡理論····························································.030
2.1.4 超網絡理論·······························································.030
2.2 體系工程與能力機理···························································.031
2.2.1 體系貢獻率的能力基準：基於能力的體系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 體系貢獻率的作用原理：體系網絡任務鏈路動量原理·········.035
2.2.3 體系貢獻率的成因機理：體系協同、適應與層次涌現特性···.037
2.2.4 體系貢獻率的能力培育：作戰體系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 體系能力與效能及特性評估··················································.040
2.3.1 體系能力評估····························································.041
2.3.2 體系效能評估····························································.048
2.3.3 體系特性評估····························································.050
2.4 體系模擬實驗與認知演化計算···············································.052
2.4.1 體系模擬實驗····························································.052
2.4.2 認知演化計算····························································.058
2.4.3 體系動力學模擬·························································.064
第3 章 體系貢獻率評估的基準流程··············································.065
3.1 體系貢獻率評估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 國家安全戰略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作戰方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 體系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作戰任務活動分析······················································.069
3.1.5 裝備功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 裝備評估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 體系貢獻率評估方案設計·····················································.072
3.2.1 明確評估問題對象······················································.072
3.2.2 設置軍事作戰想定······················································.075
3.2.3 構建評估指標框架······················································.076
3.2.4 擬制總體評估方案······················································.077
3.3 體系貢獻率全局能力評估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力評估模型構建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源數據獲取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力評估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力貢獻結果計算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力評估結果分析······················································.082
3.4 體系貢獻率重點效能評估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能評估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能模擬想定設置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能模擬實驗設計······················································.085
3.4.4 模擬模型開發集成······················································.085
3.4.5 模擬實驗運行表現······················································.086
3.4.6 效能貢獻計算分析······················································.086
3.5 體系貢獻率能效綜合評估·····················································.087
3.5.1 效能-能力聚合評估····················································.088
3.5.2 能力-效能迭代評估····················································.088
3.5.3 能力-效能定量建模····················································.089
3.5.4 綜合貢獻評估解算······················································.090
3.6 體系貢獻率評估結果分析·····················································.090
3.6.1 評估結果機理分析······················································.091
3.6.2 評估結果多維展現······················································.091
3.6.3 評估結果決策支持······················································.092
第4 章 體系貢獻率評估指標框架··················································.094
4.1 基於體系能力的指標框架·····················································.094
4.1.1 支持貢獻率評估的體系能力模型····································.094
4.1.2 面向全域關鍵能力的體系貢獻率評估指標框架··················.096
4.1.3 基於功能-能力聚合的體系貢獻率評估指標框架·················.098
4.1.4 基於改進結構方程模型的體系作戰能力評估指標框架·········.099
4.2 基於體系效能的指標框架·····················································.102
4.2.1 籃球賽高階綜合評估指標借鑒·······································.102
4.2.2 基於目標任務鏈路效能的指標框架·································.104
4.2.3 基於使命任務活動效能的指標框架·································.105
4.2.4 基於體系對抗場景效能的指標框架·································.107
4.3 基於能力生成機理的指標框架···············································.109
4.3.1 緊扣體系能力生成機理，以適應度、影響度和重要度為核心··.110
4.3.2 能力與效能指標相結合，基於效能進行能力評估與驗證······.111
4.3.3 靜態戰術技術指標與動態使命任務指標綜合·····················.112
4.3.4 基於整體論思想探索體系整體性指標······························.112
4.3.5 綜合考慮成本效益等方面的因素，構建全面的指標框架······.114
4.3.6 根據裝備種類、問題層次和發展階段有針對性地建立具體的
綜合性指標框架·························································.114
第二篇 體系貢獻率評估方法
第5 章 典型裝備系統體系貢獻率評估方法····································.116
5.1 基於能力的體系貢獻率評估方法············································.116
5.1.1 基於作戰網絡的能力貢獻率評估方法······························.116
5.1.2 基於結構的能力貢獻率評估方法····································.119
5.1.3 基於RIMER 的能力貢獻率評估方法·······························.121
5.1.4 基於架構與矩陣範數的多維度能力貢獻率評估方法············.122
5.2 基於效能的體系貢獻率評估方法············································.128
5.2.1 基於系統動力學的效能貢獻率評估方法···························.128
5.2.2 基於作戰環的效能貢獻率評估方法·································.130
5.2.3 基於深度置信網絡的效能貢獻率評估方法························.133
5.2.4 基於價值中心法的效能貢獻率評估方法···························.136
5.3 體系貢獻率綜合評估方法·····················································.137
5.3.1 基於AHP 的定性-定量綜合評估方法······························.137
5.3.2 基於SEM 的能力-效能綜合評估方法······························.141
5.3.3 基於MMF-OODA 的結構-行為綜合評估方法····················.144
5.3.4 多類型體系貢獻率綜合評估方法····································.145
第6 章 基於OODA 的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法·····················.149
6.1 能效綜合評估方法的原理·····················································.149
6.2 能效綜合評估方法的實施步驟···············································.150
6.3 體系貢獻率評估模型框架·····················································.152
6.4 評估方法的關鍵支撐技術·····················································.153
6.4.1 基於OODA 功能迴路的體系網絡建模與分析····················.153
6.4.2 基於效能模擬數據的OODA 功能迴路分析·······················.159
6.4.3 基於認知計算的能力-效能綜合評估·······························.168
6.5 案例研究··········································································.169
第7 章 面向使命任務的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法···················.175
7.1 面向使命任務的能效綜合評估方法框架···································.175
7.1.1 評估問題的輸入與輸出················································.175
7.1.2 體系貢獻率的評估過程················································.176
7.1.3 能效綜合分析與評估框架·············································.180
7.2 基於定量HOQ 的指標關聯關系分析·······································.181
7.2.1 HOQ 矩陣的構建························································.181
7.2.2 基於模擬實驗的QFD 矩陣構建過程································.184
7.3 基於組合賦權TOPSIS 的體系集成方案對比······························.186
7.3.1 TOPSIS····································································.186
7.3.2 使命任務需求滿足度評估·············································.186
7.3.3 體系貢獻率計算·························································.188
7.4 案例研究··········································································.188
7.4.1 案例背景··································································.188
7.4.2 實驗結果及評定·························································.190
7.4.3 結果分析··································································.193
第8 章 面向規劃計劃的項目體系貢獻率評估方法··························.194
8.1 基於能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻率評估方法····················.194
8.1.1 問題背景分析····························································.194
8.1.2 評估方法的總體框架···················································.199
8.1.3 實施步驟··································································.200
8.2 基於聯合使命任務線程的項目體系貢獻率評估方法····················.205
8.2.1 聯合使命任務線程概述················································.205
8.2.2 實施步驟··································································.207
8.2.3 案例研究··································································.210
第三篇 體系貢獻率評估應用
第9 章 裝備系統體系貢獻率評估應用案例····································.216
9.1 體系貢獻率評估方法頂層應用流程·········································.216
9.2 巡飛彈系統體系貢獻率的宏觀論證·········································.217
9.2.1 基於QFD 的巡飛彈系統體系貢獻率需求分析····················.218
9.2.2 巡飛彈系統需求分析中HOQ 的構造過程·························.221
9.2.3 “國家安全戰略需求—重要作戰方向”HOQ 矩陣的構造·······.229
9.2.4 “重要作戰方向—體系使命能力”HOQ 矩陣的構造·············.230
9.2.5 “體系使命能力—作戰任務清單”HOQ 矩陣的構造·············.232
9.2.6 “作戰任務清單—裝備功能需求”HOQ 矩陣的構造·············.234
9.2.7 基於能力需求滿足度的體系貢獻率宏觀論證分析···············.236
9.3 巡飛彈系統體系貢獻率的型號裝備論證···································.237
9.3.1 基於CCI-CTI 的模擬想定設置分析·································.237
9.3.2 模擬想定設定····························································.238
9.3.3 模擬應用開發····························································.239
9.3.4 模擬實驗設計····························································.241
9.3.5 效能貢獻率評估分析···················································.243
第10 章 裝備項目體系貢獻率評估應用案例··································.246
10.1 智能化無人作戰力量體系建設需求········································.246
10.1.1 無人裝備建設與發展趨勢···········································.246
10.1.2 基於“馬賽克戰”的無人作戰力量規劃計劃與體系籌劃設計·······.250
10.2 “馬賽克戰”作戰體系能力生成周期模型的構建·······················.257
10.3 項目與作戰體系能力關聯建模··············································.258
10.4 基於能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻率評估·························.265
參考文獻························································································.267