基於時間依賴的地震預測方法研究

第1 章 地殼運動與變形·····································································.1
1.1 地殼運動··············································································.1
1.2 地殼變形··············································································.3
1.3 地殼變形影響因素··································································.5
參考文獻····················································································.8
第2 章 地殼變形的觀測·····································································10
2.1 有限尺度巖體變形··································································10
2.2 自然條件下的地殼變形····························································15
2.3 地形變儀器觀測原理·······························································16
2.3.1 地傾斜觀測·································································16
2.3.2 地應變觀測·································································24
2.3.3 重力觀測····································································27
2.3.4 斷層形變觀測······························································30
2.4 地應變觀測的主要影響因素······················································31
2.4.1 場地效應及場地—儀器耦合作用······································31
2.4.2 儀器類型的影響···························································45
2.4.3 不同周期信號響應的差異···············································53
2.4.4 載荷影響與熱影響························································62
參考文獻····················································································66
第3 章 地震孕育不同階段的地殼變形特征·············································68
3.1 震前變形··············································································68
3.1.1 地震外圍區變形特征·····················································68
3.1.2 震中區震前變形特征·····················································70
3.2 震間變形··············································································72
3.3 同震變形··············································································74
3.3.1 GNSS 同震位移場·························································74
3.3.2 同震應變場·································································76
3.3.3 同震傾斜場·································································78
3.3.4 同震形變波特征···························································78
3.4 震後變形··············································································80
3.5 本章小結··············································································82
參考文獻····················································································83
第4 章 地形變前兆問題特殊性····························································85
4.1 地形變前兆···········································································85
4.2 地震孕育過程模式與形變前兆···················································87
4.2.1 有限邊界條件下的地震孕育及應力應變過程·······················87
4.2.2 （半）無限空間下的地震孕育動力學過程···························88
4.3 強震前的形變異常特征····························································93
4.3.1 震前近震中區變形························································93
4.3.2 強震前遠場區域的地形變特征······································.103
4.4 最小形變前兆距離·······························································.105
4.5 震前地殼變形不動點問題······················································.106
4.6 形變前兆問題的特殊性·························································.108
參考文獻·················································································.109
第5 章 地應力波···········································································.113
5.1 地殼內不同圈層的相互作用···················································.113
5.2 板塊邊緣驅動力的遠程傳播模型·············································.116
5.3 地殼薄板彎曲變形及應力傳遞模型··········································.117
5.4 地殼深部物質流動對地震和形變的影響····································.119
5.4.1 水波——小振幅波·····················································.120
5.4.2 水波——長波···························································.124
5.4.3 地殼深部物質流動對地震與形變遷移的影響····················.126
5.5 地應力波觀測·····································································.127
參考文獻·················································································.131
第6 章 地應力波前兆與地震關系的建立·············································.133
6.1 地應力波前兆特征·······························································.133
6.1.1 地應力波頻段···························································.133
6.1.2 地應力波前兆類型·····················································.134
6.1.3 地應力波傳播速度·····················································.135
6.2 地應力波前兆識別·······························································.135
6.2.1 強震引起的震後變形··················································.135
6.2.2 形變年變化······························································.136
6.2.3 地應力波前兆異常的識別············································.137
6.2.4 地應力波前兆特征——多普勒效應································.137
6.3 地應力波前兆與地震的關系···················································.138
6.3.1 前兆面臨的“最後一分鐘”問題···································.138
6.3.2 前兆異常與地震的相關性判別······································.139
6.3.3 持續時間為15～180 天的加速變化異常與相關地震···········.140
6.3.4 持續時間為1～4 天的加速變化異常與相關地震···············.144
6.3.5 持續時間為1～3 年的形變趨勢與大震成組活動···············.149
6.4 地應力波前兆與地震相關性的判別方法····································.154
6.4.1 前兆分布的廣泛性·····················································.154
6.4.2 前兆與地震相關性的判別方法······································.154
6.4.3 2008 年汶川Ms 8.0 地震發生前的形變異常與地震的
相關性討論······························································.155
6.4.4 遠場形變前兆的動力學意義·········································.156
參考文獻··················································································.158
第7 章 應變能與地震能的平衡與地震預測問題····································.160
7.1 應變能與地震能平衡問題······················································.160
7.1.1 應變能與地震能························································.160
7.1.2 塊體運動速率與地震能釋放·········································.164
7.1.3 斷層滑動速率與地震活動的關系···································.166
7.2 應變能與地震能的轉化·························································.167
7.3 2008 年汶川Ms 8.0 地震前後的應變積累與釋放平衡···················.170
7.3.1 2008 年汶川Ms 8.0 地震前後的地震活動與GNSS 觀測······.170
7.3.2 Benioff 應變·····························································.171
7.3.3 GNSS 站間基線·························································.172
7.3.4 瀘州—廣州基線縮短與Benioff 蠕變虧損的相關性分析······.174
7.4 形變與地震的協同性····························································.175
7.5 地震定量預測技術思路·························································.176
參考文獻·················································································.178
第8 章 基於時間依賴的地震定量預測方法··········································.181
8.1 中長期地震預測方法····························································.181
8.1.1 成組大震優勢發生時間···············································.181
8.1.2 成組大震發生地點（斷層） ·········································.184
8.2 地震短期預測方法·······························································.184
8.2.1 地震發生等待時間預測···············································.184
8.2.2 地震地點預測方法·····················································.185
8.2.3 地震強度預測方法·····················································.204
8.2.4 地震發生等待時間與震中距離的關系·····························.207
8.3 地震短臨預測方法·······························································.208
8.4 應用與檢驗········································································.208
參考文獻·················································································.210