Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Second Edition

Norman Fenton, Martin Neil



Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions.








  • Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models
  • Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more
  • Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed
  • Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications

A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.



- 提供構建和運行逼真貝葉斯網絡模型所需的所有工具
- 提供基於真實風險評估問題的廣泛示例模型,涵蓋金融、安全、系統可靠性、法律、法醫學、網絡安全等各種應用領域
- 根據需要介紹所有必要的數學、概率和統計知識
- 在進入詳細應用之前,建立概率、風險以及構建和使用貝葉斯網絡模型的基礎

專屬網站提供所有章節的練習和解答,以及其他豐富的資源。AgenaRisk 軟體包含了本書中所有模型的可執行版本。採用本書的認可學術教師可以免費獲得講義投影片。