Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 6/e (Paperback)
暫譯: 管理判斷的決策分析，第6版（平裝本）
Paul Goodwin , George Wright
- 出版商: Wiley
- 出版日期: 2026-03-01
- 售價: $1,560
- 貴賓價: 9.8 折 $1,528
- 語言: 英文
- 頁數: 496
- ISBN: 1394362552
- ISBN-13: 9781394362554
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相關分類:
管理與領導 Management-leadership
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相關主題
商品描述
本書序言
●Provides a reader-friendly introduction to decision analysis without requiring advanced mathematical knowledge
●Integrates behavioral insights to address psychological biases that can undermine managerial judgment
●Covers a wide range of qualitative and quantitative decision analysis techniques applicable to real-world problems
●Applies concepts to diverse contexts, including business, public administration, and environmental planning
●Encourages active learning through end-of-chapter exercises that reinforce understanding and critical thinking
●Supports flexible teaching approaches with a companion website containing additional exercises, case studies, quizzes, and simulations
本書特色
●Introduces the role of artificial intelligence in decision-making, highlighting benefits, limitations, and future potential
●Provides a step-by-step guide to applying the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning
●Demonstrates a streamlined approach for integrating scenario planning with multi-attribute decision analysis
●New practical examples illustrating successful applications of decision analysis and scenario planning
●Includes the latest psychological research on multi-attribute decision-making and behavioral “nudges”
●Incorporates the SPIES method for estimating probability distributions and expands coverage of the Delphi method with recommendations for robust implementation
●Adds Cooke’s Classical Method for aggregating expert probability judgments and discusses the success of superforecasters
商品描述(中文翻譯)
本書序言
● 提供讀者友好的決策分析介紹，無需高級數學知識
● 整合行為洞察，以應對可能削弱管理判斷的心理偏見
● 涵蓋廣泛的定性和定量決策分析技術，適用於現實世界的問題
● 將概念應用於多樣的情境，包括商業、公共行政和環境規劃
● 通過章末練習鼓勵主動學習，加強理解和批判性思維
● 支持靈活的教學方法，伴隨網站提供額外的練習、案例研究、測驗和模擬
本書特色
● 介紹人工智慧在決策中的角色，強調其優勢、限制和未來潛力
● 提供逐步指南，應用直覺邏輯（Intuitive Logics）情境規劃方法
● 展示將情境規劃與多屬性決策分析整合的簡化方法
● 新增實用範例，說明決策分析和情境規劃的成功應用
● 包含最新的心理學研究，探討多屬性決策和行為「推動」（nudges）
● 融入SPIES方法以估算概率分佈，並擴展德爾菲法（Delphi method）的覆蓋範圍，提供穩健實施的建議
● 增加庫克的古典方法（Cooke’s Classical Method）以聚合專家概率判斷，並討論超預測者（superforecasters）的成功案例
作者簡介
PAUL GOODWIN is Emeritus Professor at the University of Bath, UK. His research focuses on the role of judgment in forecasting and decision-making. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he has consulted for numerous organizations and served as editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and the “Hot New Research” column in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting for twenty years.
GEORGE WRIGHT is Professor at the University of Strathclyde, UK, and Director of Scenario Associates Ltd. His research examines the role and quality of judgment in anticipating the future. He is editor of both the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and Futures & Foresight Science. He has delivered workshops and consultancy in scenario planning for organizations worldwide.
作者簡介(中文翻譯)
保羅·古德溫（PAUL GOODWIN）是英國巴斯大學的名譽教授。他的研究專注於判斷在預測和決策中的角色。作為國際預測學會的會員，他曾為多個組織提供諮詢，並擔任《國際預測期刊》（International Journal of Forecasting）和《前瞻：應用預測國際期刊》（Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting）中“熱門新研究”專欄的編輯，長達二十年。
喬治·賴特（GEORGE WRIGHT）是英國斯特拉斯克萊德大學的教授，也是情境協會有限公司（Scenario Associates Ltd.）的董事。他的研究探討了在預測未來時判斷的角色和質量。他是《行為決策期刊》（Journal of Behavioral Decision Making）和《未來與前瞻科學期刊》（Futures & Foresight Science）的編輯。他在全球範圍內為組織提供情境規劃的工作坊和諮詢服務。
目錄大綱
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART
Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART
Chapter 5 Introduction to probability
Chapter 6 Decision-making under risk
Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams
Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems
Chapter 9 Revising judgments in light of new information
Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment
Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities
Chapter 12 Structured risk management
Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals
Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems
Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia
Chapter 16 Scenario planning: a way of dealing with uncertainty
Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis
Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and the role of AI
Suggested answers to selected questions
目錄大綱(中文翻譯)
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART
Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART
Chapter 5 Introduction to probability
Chapter 6 Decision-making under risk
Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams
Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems
Chapter 9 Revising judgments in light of new information
Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment
Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities
Chapter 12 Structured risk management
Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals
Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems
Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia
Chapter 16 Scenario planning: a way of dealing with uncertainty
Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis
Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and the role of AI
Suggested answers to selected questions
