Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 4/e (Paperback)

<內容簡介>

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

 The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

 <章節目錄>

Chapter 1 Introduction.
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives.
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART.
Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: Alternatives to SMART.
Chapter 5 Introduction to probability.
Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty.
Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams.
Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems.
Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information.
Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment.
Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities.
Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management.
Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals.
Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems.
Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia.
Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty.
Chapter 17 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions.
Suggested answers to selected questions.

在一個日益複雜的世界中，決策分析在幫助決策者瞭解他們所面臨的問題方面扮演著重要角色。《管理判斷的決策分析》在決策分析方法的廣度上獨一無二。它涵蓋了與無輔助管理決策相關的心理問題，以及旨在克服這些問題的決策分析方法。它以清晰、直接的方式呈現和解釋，不使用數學符號。

第四版已經完全修訂和更新，並包含一些變化，以反映該領域的最新發展。

章節目錄：
第1章 簡介。
第2章 人們如何做出涉及多個目標的決策。
第3章 涉及多個目標的決策：SMART。
第4章 涉及多個目標的決策：SMART的替代方案。
第5章 概率介紹。
第6章 不確定情況下的決策。
第7章 決策樹和影響圖。
第8章 將模擬應用於決策問題。
第9章 根據新信息修訂判斷。
第10章 概率評估中的啟發法和偏見。
第11章 獲取概率的方法。
第12章 風險和不確定性管理。
第13章 涉及群體的決策。
第14章 資源分配和談判問題。
第15章 決策框架和認知慣性。
第16章 情景規劃：處理不確定性的替代方法。
第17章 替代決策支援系統和結論。
選擇性問題的建議答案。