Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Hardcover)

Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

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New York Times Bestseller

An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

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《紐約時報》暢銷書
《經濟學人》2015年最佳書籍
「自丹尼爾·卡尼曼的《思考,快與慢》以來最重要的決策書籍。」
──《華爾街日報》的傑森·茲威格

無論是購買股票、制定政策、推出新產品還是簡單地計劃一週的餐點,每個人都會從更深入地了解未來中受益。然而,不幸的是,人們往往是糟糕的預測者。正如沃頓商學院教授菲利普·泰特洛克在一項具有里程碑意義的2005年研究中所顯示的那樣,即使是專家的預測也只比隨機預測稍微好一點。然而,該研究的一個重要且未被報導的結論是,一些專家確實具有真正的遠見,而泰特洛克在過去十年中一直試圖找出其中的原因。是什麼使某些人如此出色?這種才能能夠教導嗎?

在《超級預測》中,泰特洛克和合著者丹·加德納通過數十年的研究和一項大規模的政府資助的預測比賽的結果,提供了一部關於預測的傑作。這個「良好判斷計劃」涉及數以萬計的普通人,包括一位布魯克林的電影製片人、一位退休的管道安裝工和一位前舞廳舞者,他們致力於預測全球事件。其中一些志願者的表現驚人地出色。他們超越了其他基準、競爭對手和預測市場。他們甚至超越了擁有機密信息的情報分析師的集體判斷。他們是「超級預測者」。

在這本開創性且易於理解的書中,泰特洛克和加德納向我們展示了如何從這個精英團體中學習。他們通過故事講述了預測的成功(對奧薩瑪·賓拉登藏身處的突襲)和失敗(豬灣事件),並訪問了一系列高層決策者,從大衛·彼得雷斯到羅伯特·魯賓,他們表明良好的預測不需要強大的計算機或深奧的方法。它涉及從各種來源收集證據,以概率思維,團隊合作,記錄成績,並願意承認錯誤並改變方向。《超級預測》提供了第一個可證明有效的提高我們預測未來能力的方法,無論是在商業、金融、政治、國際事務還是日常生活中,它都注定成為一部現代經典。