Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks (Hardcover)

Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making.

• Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models
• Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more
• Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed

The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently.

A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

儘管許多貝葉斯網絡（BN）應用現在已經在日常使用中，但BN尚未普及。《風險評估和貝葉斯網絡決策分析》專注於實際的現實世界問題解決和模型建立，而不是算法和理論，解釋了如何將知識與數據相結合，開發和使用（貝葉斯）風險因果模型，提供強大的洞察力和更好的決策。

本書提供了構建和運行逼真貝葉斯網絡模型所需的所有工具，並提供了大量基於真實風險評估問題的示例模型，涵蓋了金融、安全、系統可靠性、法律等廣泛的應用領域。書中還介紹了所需的數學、概率和統計知識。

該書首先建立了概率、風險和構建和使用BN模型的基礎，然後進入詳細的應用。基於BN的算法出現在附錄中，而不是主文本中，因為無需理解這些算法就能構建和使用BN模型。該書避免使用令人生畏的數學，提供了關於模型構建的實用建議，以確保高效地構建模型。

專用網站www.BayesianRisk.com提供了所有描述模型的可執行版本，所有章節的練習和解答，PowerPoint幻燈片，眾多其他資源，以及可免費下載的AgenaRisk軟件。