Exploring and Shaping International Futures
暫譯: 探索與塑造國際未來
Hughes, Barry B.
- 出版商: Springer
- 出版日期: 2026-06-06
- 售價: $2,690
- 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $2,555
- 語言: 英文
- 頁數: 314
- 裝訂: Hardcover - also called cloth, retail trade, or trade
- ISBN: 3032220831
- ISBN-13: 9783032220837
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相關分類:
管理與領導 Management-leadership
海外代購書籍(需單獨結帳)
相關主題
商品描述
This Open Access book offers a structured approach to thinking about the future, covering local, global, and cross-sectoral perspectives. It begins by posing three fundamental questions: What futures are normatively desirable? What trajectories do current trends suggest? And how might human agency influence those trajectories? Using the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a reference point, the book examines human, environmental, and sociopolitical development through empirical exploration and long-term scenario analysis. It also explains and supports usage of the International Futures (IFs) system, a powerful tool for scenario building and policy exploration. The chapters cover population, economics, agriculture, energy, the environment, and governance. Each chapter combines forecasts, model insights, and leverage points for change. The final chapter synthesizes these findings by comparing global scenario sets and encouraging critical thinking about alternative futures. Scholars, analysts, and policymakers will find this book appealing. It combines empirical depth with accessible modeling tools. These tools support education, strategic foresight, and informed decision-making.
商品描述(中文翻譯)
這本開放存取的書籍提供了一種結構化的方法來思考未來,涵蓋了地方、全球和跨部門的觀點。它首先提出三個基本問題:哪些未來是規範上可取的?當前趨勢暗示了什麼樣的發展軌跡?人類的行動能力如何影響這些軌跡?以聯合國可持續發展目標(SDGs)為參考點,本書通過實證探索和長期情境分析來檢視人類、環境和社會政治的發展。
本書還解釋並支持使用國際未來(IFs)系統,這是一個強大的情境建構和政策探索工具。各章節涵蓋了人口、經濟、農業、能源、環境和治理。每一章結合了預測、模型見解和變革的杠杆點。最後一章通過比較全球情境集來綜合這些發現,並鼓勵對替代未來進行批判性思考。學者、分析師和政策制定者將會對這本書感興趣。它結合了實證深度與可接觸的建模工具,這些工具支持教育、戰略前瞻和知情決策。
作者簡介
Barry B. Hughes is a Distinguished University Professor at the Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, USA, and founded the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. He initially developed and then led development of multiple subsequent generations of the International Futures (IFs) system, a widely used and freely available tool for long-term global forecasting and scenario analysis. His work has supported strategic planning for organizations including the UN, U.S. National Intelligence Council, European Commission, and several national governments. Hughes focuses on improving the human condition through data-driven analysis of global trends and dynamics in development, sustainability, and governance. He holds a B.S. in Mathematics from Stanford and a PhD in Political Science from the University of Minnesota, USA, . Hughes has also contributed to major publications such as several Global Trends and UN Human Development Reports, and has significantly advanced integrated modeling for both education and policy insight.
作者簡介(中文翻譯)
巴里·B·休斯是美國丹佛大學約瑟夫·科貝爾全球與公共事務學院的傑出大學教授,並創立了弗雷德里克·S·帕爾迪國際未來研究所。他最初開發並領導了多個後續世代的國際未來(International Futures, IFs)系統,這是一個廣泛使用且免費提供的長期全球預測和情境分析工具。他的工作支持了包括聯合國、美國國家情報委員會、歐洲委員會以及幾個國家政府在內的組織的戰略規劃。休斯專注於通過數據驅動的分析來改善人類狀況,分析全球趨勢和發展、可持續性及治理的動態。他擁有斯坦福大學的數學學士學位和美國明尼蘇達大學的政治學博士學位。休斯還為多部重要出版物做出了貢獻,包括幾份《全球趨勢報告》和《聯合國人類發展報告》,並在教育和政策洞察的綜合建模方面取得了顯著進展。